London, May 10, 2026, 19:10 BST
Leandro Trossard struck in the 83rd minute, pushing Arsenal to a 1-0 victory at West Ham United and keeping them five points clear of Manchester City — just two more wins would lock in their first Premier League title in 22 years. West Ham’s Callum Wilson thought he’d rescued a point deep into stoppage time, but VAR wiped out his equaliser for a foul on Arsenal keeper David Raya.
This result flipped the race from a matter of nerves to a numbers game. Arsenal sit on 79 points after 36 games; City trail, holding 74 from 35. Arteta’s squad will clinch the title if they manage wins over Burnley at the Emirates and Crystal Palace away.
The day before, City closed Arsenal’s lead to just two points with a 3-0 victory over Brentford at the Etihad, where Jérémy Doku and Omar Marmoush found the net after a cagey first half, alongside Erling Haaland, who notched his 26th league goal this season. “If you play for Manchester City, you think of titles every single day,” Haaland said. Reuters
Pep Guardiola put it bluntly: City aren’t in the driver’s seat anymore. “It’s not in our hands,” he admitted after the Brentford victory. The task ahead? City must get past Crystal Palace, take on the FA Cup final, then face Bournemouth—no letup in a tough run-in. The Guardian
City’s path isn’t closed yet, just tight. Should Arsenal slip up with a draw in either of their final two, and City sweep their last three, both sides would land on the same points total. The Premier League rules: goal difference goes first—calculated as goals scored minus goals conceded. Next comes total goals scored. Then it’s head-to-head points, and on that front, City already beat Arsenal once and drew the other meeting, so they hold the advantage.
Arsenal’s odds were already strong heading into West Ham, according to Sports Illustrated. Pulling from Opta’s 10,000-model run after City handled Brentford, they put Arsenal’s title probability at 79.7%, City at just 20.3%. That’s before Trossard’s late goal in east London even came into play.
Sunday was a reminder that tidy formulas don’t always capture the mess. Opta Analyst pointed out Wilson’s disallowed goal kept Arsenal holding their own destiny, while West Ham’s survival job just got heavier. It also flagged Arsenal’s seventh 1-0 league win this season.
City’s run-in is tricky. Crystal Palace visit on Wednesday. Then it’s Chelsea on Saturday for the FA Cup final. After that, City head to Bournemouth on May 19, and wrap up at home against Aston Villa. Both Bournemouth and Villa are still pushing for European spots.
Arsenal’s schedule, at least on paper, looks straightforward. According to The Guardian’s WhoScored analysis, West Ham stood out as the final opponent posing any urgent league threat, framing the trip to London Stadium as more about nerve than strategy. West Ham, after all, were battling relegation.
West Ham’s loss could put pressure on the bottom of the table. According to Reuters, if Tottenham Hotspur win against Leeds United on Monday, West Ham might find themselves four points adrift of safety with only two matches to play.
Arsenal’s calendar doesn’t ease up—they face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final on May 30, just six days after wrapping up the Premier League campaign. Domestically, things are simple on paper: take care of Burnley, handle Palace, and Manchester City’s late push fades into the rearview.
