Jacksonville, Florida, May 12, 2026, 06:11 EDT
Heavy rain rolled into Jacksonville and stretches of north and central Florida on Tuesday, after Monday’s scattered storms gave way to a more sustained threat along the I-95 corridor. A cold front triggered the latest wave of downpours, with the National Weather Service in Jacksonville calling for continued rainfall and pockets of isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday. Forecasters warned that some strong storms could hit parts of northeast and north-central Florida.
Timing could be an issue. Rain is expected to sweep through Florida right in the middle of the weekday commute, prompting the Weather Prediction Center to tag I-95’s busy corridor with a marginal excessive-rainfall risk. That’s a lower-tier warning, but it means rain might hit flash-flood levels in spots. The forecast covers Tuesday morning into early Wednesday.
Rain isn’t all bad news. WPC forecaster Campbell said in a note that “most of the rainfall will be beneficial” given the area’s drought. But the agency is still wary: it’s marking a low-end flood risk on Florida’s east coast, and puts the odds at 60% to 80% for over 3 inches falling in the Jacksonville metro. NCEP Weather Prediction Center
On Monday, News4JAX flagged the risk of storms stretching from the coast inland along I-95 and U.S. 17. Forecasters highlighted the potential for gusty winds, some small hail, and didn’t rule out a quick tornado either. Also in the outlook: a drop of about 10 degrees on Tuesday, with temperatures set to rebound as the week progresses.
In Jacksonville, the National Weather Service was looking for rain and maybe a thunderstorm Tuesday, highs close to 73 Fahrenheit, and a 90% rain chance. Forecast totals: three-quarters to an inch. More showers and storms were lined up for Tuesday night, then rain likely sticking around into early Wednesday afternoon.
Severe weather isn’t off the table, but the risk stays at the lower end. The Storm Prediction Center stuck with a marginal risk designation for the Florida Peninsula. Forecasters Guyer and Weinman called out the chance for isolated damaging winds and hail, adding there’s a tornado risk near the front if storms manage to persist.
Across Florida, peer-market forecasts are picking up the same boundary. The NWS Tampa Bay office on Tuesday and Wednesday highlighted a marginal severe-storm risk for the eastern portion of its region, warning that a few inland spots could see 2 to 4 inches of locally heavy rain. Farther north, Tallahassee and the Panhandle were set for widespread rainfall, with forecasters pointing to a medium chance for totals above 3 inches in some Florida counties—and the potential for minor flooding where drainage is poor.
Showers will move in and out through the day before clearing up by 5 p.m., according to Ryan Gold at WTXL in Tallahassee. “We do not expect any severe weather today, but it can get loud at times,” he said. WTXL ABC 27 Tallahassee News
There are still a few ways this setup might play out. According to the SPC, morning storms and early cloud cover could prevent the atmosphere from getting too unstable, which would keep severe weather chances lower. On the flip side, if the sun breaks through and storms organize, that risk ticks up. Forecasters are keeping an eye on that dividing line through the afternoon.
Once Wednesday clears out, things shape up. NWS Jacksonville is calling for drier conditions to settle in from Thursday through Saturday. High pressure moves over the region, pushing weekend highs up—expect lower to mid-90s away from the coast.
