San Francisco, May 24, 2026, 10:04 PDT
- OpenAI is gearing up for a confidential IPO filing. So far, though, there hasn’t been any confirmation of a public filing.
- SpaceX has its S-1 in, giving investors a look at the numbers.
- That overlap sets up a test: will public investors match the rich private-market prices seen for AI-heavy companies?
SpaceX has stepped ahead in the race with OpenAI for a public listing, filing IPO paperwork that’s now public, while OpenAI—led by Sam Altman and known for ChatGPT—continues to keep its own IPO process confidential.
Timing’s key here. With a confidential filing, a company can kick off the SEC review behind closed doors, keeping its financial details away from investors for now. Going public with an S-1 flips the script—everything’s out: risks, figures, deal terms. SEC records indicate SpaceX submitted its S-1 on May 20.
OpenAI is gearing up to file confidentially for an initial public offering within weeks, eyeing a potential fall listing, according to Bloomberg News. The company has tapped Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to assist with the process, but the precise timeline hasn’t been pinned down yet. “We regularly evaluate a range of strategic options,” OpenAI said, emphasizing that execution is still the main priority. Bloomberg Law
OpenAI’s legal dispute with Musk is now out of the way. IPOX Vice President Kat Liu told Reuters this was “a major obstacle to an IPO” that’s now resolved. Liu added that if both companies file at once, portfolio managers would have to weigh OpenAI against SpaceX directly. Reuters
OpenAI is flexing its numbers. In March, the company wrapped up a $122 billion funding round, putting its post-money valuation at $852 billion. Reported monthly revenue: $2 billion. The user base? Over 900 million turn to ChatGPT each week, and more than 50 million are paid subscribers.
SpaceX faces its market reckoning sooner. The numbers are right there in its filing: $18.67 billion is the revenue estimate for 2025, but losses projected at $4.94 billion for the year. First quarter? Revenue hit $4.69 billion, while losses came in at $4.28 billion. The company’s aiming for a Nasdaq debut with the ticker SPCX.
The real story here is the valuation spread. Forbes Australia flagged SpaceX possibly eyeing a range as high as $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion; OpenAI, on the other hand, is looking at something closer to $1 trillion. Of course, those IPO prices can shift—bankers typically gauge interest from major investors during the roadshow process.
The deals are vying for both investor focus and for capital. According to Business Insider, SpaceX might get fast-tracked into big indexes right after its debut—potentially joining the Nasdaq-100 in just 15 trading days. But with a limited public “float,” available shares could stay tight, making the stock prone to sharp swings. Business Insider
This competitive landscape is tangled. SpaceX, via xAI, has jumped into the AI fray, just as OpenAI contends with mounting challenges from Anthropic and Google. Anthropic—OpenAI’s leading private-market adversary—is reportedly eyeing an IPO later this year, according to SiliconAngle, which would pile onto a growing surge of AI listings.
SpaceX is going after a massive market. According to Axios, its filing pegs the total addressable market at $28.5 trillion—the theoretical ceiling if every customer spent with them. “Farcical,” is how Ryan Cummings, economist and chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking, summed up the number. Axios
The risk is obvious. OpenAI could push back or alter its filing; a confidential route would leave investors with far less visibility than SpaceX’s public paperwork. SpaceX, meanwhile, wants the market to ignore heavy losses, a limited public float, and its far-off ambitions for orbital AI infrastructure.
The comparison is hard to escape. On one side, there’s the dominant consumer AI brand; on the other, rockets, Starlink, xAI—and a public prospectus in play. Investors are left to judge if there’s room for both to hit the trillion-dollar mark together.
