Rome, May 9, 2026, 18:05 CEST
Arthur Fils heads into Saturday’s Italian Open second round as the obvious pick over Andrea Pellegrino. The 21-year-old Frenchman has both the odds and predictive models leaning his way before this first-ever tour-level clash in Rome. According to the ATP schedule, qualifier Pellegrino takes on 15th seed Fils on BNP Paribas Arena, slotted in after the not-before-5 p.m. match. Elsewhere in the session, Jannik Sinner is set for action later on Campo Centrale.
Rome isn’t just another stop on clay. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia stands out as an ATP Masters 1000, one of the elite events on the regular calendar, landing just ahead of Roland Garros. Fils is fighting to extend his strong clay form. A win for Pellegrino? That would mark his best singles showing so far.
The paper gap looks significant. According to ATP media notes, Pellegrino, 29, sits at No. 155, while Fils holds the No. 17 spot, with a 22-6 mark in 2026. Fils just picked up a Barcelona title and made the Madrid Masters semifinals. He’s gone 9-1 on clay this year, is 17-0 when he wins the first set, and a perfect 7-0 in deciding sets, per the notes.
Stats Insider ran 10,000 simulations and put Fils’ win probability at 87% over Pellegrino. TAB’s head-to-head odds: Fils trading at $1.08, Pellegrino at $8.00—so, an upset’s not really in the cards according to the market. Still, the same site pointed out Pellegrino as a value play at that price.
Last Word on Tennis contributor Ateet Shrivastava put his chips on Fils as well, calling the Frenchman “playing the best tennis of his career” and backing him to win in straight sets. One note of caution, though—Shrivastava flagged possible fatigue after Fils’ packed schedule lately. Last Word On Sports
Pellegrino isn’t leaning on rankings here—timing’s the story. Coming up from the qualifiers, he grabbed his first Masters 1000 main-draw victory, taking out fellow Italian Luca Nardi 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 over two hours and 13 minutes, according to Rai. A qualifier, for the record, is a player reaching the main draw by battling through the preliminaries.
Pellegrino’s win gave him a real sense of the court and the crowd. According to Sky Sport, he had secured his spot in the main draw before beating Nardi, calling it his third ATP-level win. Fils is up next.
Fils faces a real threat here—Rome hasn’t been kind to seeded players so far. On this very BNP Paribas Arena schedule, Mariano Navone took out fourth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight tiebreaks, 7-6(4), 7-6(5), per the ATP schedule. If Fils stumbles early, Pellegrino and his supporters will sense their chance.
Fils stands out as the clearer pick here. He’s got the higher ranking, a stronger year behind him, recent clay-court results in his favor, plus the kind of serve and return mix that keeps points quick—giving Pellegrino less room to drag this into a drawn-out battle.
The previews out there point to Fils winning in straight sets. As for Pellegrino, his only real shot? He’ll have to hold early, push Fils’ first serve, and stretch out the rallies—hoping maybe the Frenchman’s heavy schedule finally takes its toll.
