SAN FRANCISCO, June 5, 2026, 05:01 PDT
OpenAI’s road to a possible IPO just got more complicated. Senior U.S. officials have started informal discussions with several top AI firms about the government possibly taking equity positions, NOTUS reported, per Reuters. It’s still early days; specifics are unclear, and Reuters noted it hasn’t been able to verify the account itself.
Timing’s in play here. OpenAI hasn’t yet put in its confidential paperwork for a U.S. IPO, but that’s coming. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is on deck to take the spotlight next week on Nasdaq with an offering that could rake in $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic—the company behind Claude—has already gone confidential, moving the frontier AI IPO race from speculation to reality in just two weeks.
A confidential filing lets a company submit an early draft registration to the Securities and Exchange Commission before opening up its financials to the public. By doing this, firms can handle regulatory feedback without immediately exposing revenue, losses, or risk factors—details rivals would love to see. With multiple heavyweight tech names eyeing the same chunk of public-market capital, that window of privacy can be crucial.
OpenAI is prepping a secret IPO filing that could land soon, Axios reported May 20, citing someone familiar with the matter. Timing is still up in the air. Both OpenAI and SpaceX are tapping some of the same banks—Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase, according to Axios. An OpenAI spokesperson kept it brief: “Our focus remains on execution.” Axios
On the same day, Reuters said OpenAI could hit the public markets as soon as September, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley helping prepare the IPO paperwork. “Resolving that legal overhang removed a major obstacle to an IPO,” said Kat Liu, vice president at IPOX, after a court threw out Musk’s challenge against OpenAI. Reuters
Anthropic threw a wrench into the schedule. On Monday, the company announced it had confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO after pulling in $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation in late May—pushing its latest private valuation past OpenAI’s. PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes noted Anthropic had “volunteered to absorb” disclosure risk first. For D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria, the move to “go early” could give Anthropic an upper hand as it faces SpaceX, OpenAI, and others all chasing capital. Gulf Business
SpaceX is pushing the boundaries in this sector. According to the Financial Times, Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX’s AI division will see revenue soar to $322 billion by 2030, up sharply from $3.2 billion in 2025, Reuters reported. Not everyone shares that optimism: Morningstar analysts valued SpaceX at $780 billion—well below the company’s IPO target—and pointed to tough competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as unpredictable profitability.
The index issue looms large. S&P Global won’t tweak its criteria to let SpaceX into the S&P 500 any sooner; the bar still includes profitability, among other factors. SpaceX, after all, reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025. For B. Riley Wealth’s Art Hogan, granting exceptions for big, unprofitable firms “didn’t make a great deal of sense.” Reuters
OpenAI told investors it had pulled in $122 billion in committed capital as of March 31, putting its post-money valuation at $852 billion. Monthly revenue, according to the company, stands at $2 billion. ChatGPT’s user numbers? Over 900 million every week, with more than 50 million subscribers on top.
Governance could be a flashpoint. According to OpenAI, the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation sits on top of OpenAI Group PBC—the public benefit corporation structure mandates a balance between profit and mission. The Foundation controls 26% of the company, Microsoft comes in a bit higher at around 27%, and the rest—47%—is split among employees and past investors, the company said.
There’s a danger the opportunity closes before OpenAI can move. If government equity ends up as a public market prerequisite, those talks might shake investor nerves. A disappointing SpaceX listing or big losses in Anthropic’s IPO paperwork could push bankers into reevaluating valuations across the board. For now, OpenAI still holds the brand power and revenue heft. But it hasn’t filed to go public yet.
