NEW YORK, May 30, 2026, 10:02 EDT
SpaceX has secured a $4.16 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force to develop satellites capable of tracking airborne threats—marking its second military satellite deal topping a billion dollars in just four days. This latest win is another signpost for investors eyeing Elon Musk’s upcoming IPO.
Timing is key here. SpaceX looks set for what could shape up as a record-setting market debut, picking up fresh government-backed revenue as Wall Street weighs if Starlink—its satellite-internet business—can scale to the lofty valuation Musk is after. On May 26, the Space Force handed SpaceX a $2.29 billion contract for the Space Data Network Backbone, a secure system designed to shuttle military data swiftly around the world.
Roth Capital’s Rohit Kulkarni, speaking to CNBC this month, put it plainly: SpaceX’s valuation debate turns on how far Starlink can scale. Lately, that question is picking up steam, with the company’s IPO narrative now tied to not just rockets, but also consumer broadband, defense contracts, and a growing push into AI infrastructure.
The $4.16 billion contract goes to the Space-Based Advanced Moving Target Indicator, or SB-AMTI. This satellite system is designed to detect and track moving airborne targets from orbit. According to the Space Force, the project will rely on space-borne sensors, secure comms, and ground-based data processing. They’re aiming for an initial constellation as soon as 2028.
Starlink is still the standout. Data from Apptopia in April showed the company’s app downloads and monthly active users more than doubled year-over-year in the first quarter. Estimated revenue last year landed at $11.4 billion. Brazil and Argentina were major contributors to those gains. In the U.S., downloads set a new high: 1.2 million between January and March.
A recent filing lays out why Starlink keeps drawing investor interest. SpaceX’s connectivity arm—Starlink—brought in $1.19 billion in operating profit for the first quarter. Yet, across the whole company, SpaceX recorded a $1.94 billion operating loss on $4.69 billion of revenue. The AI segment alone was responsible for $2.47 billion in losses, according to the filing.
The valuation question doesn’t come with an easy answer. “The risk isn’t whether SpaceX is a real business; it clearly is,” said eToro analyst Josh Gilbert to Reuters. “The risk is whether a $1.75 trillion valuation adequately prices in the execution challenges” for a company that operates across rockets, internet, and AI projects. Reuters
Defense contracts highlight Washington’s growing dependence on commercial space firms. U.S. Space Force Col. Ryan Frazier called the SB-AMTI project crucial for giving the military “sustained battlespace awareness of contested airspace.” He also emphasized the plan to avoid a single supplier, with more awards anticipated over the next year. Space Systems Command
The contracts, however, leave the core technical hurdle in place. For SpaceX, making Starship—a heavy-lift rocket built for reusability—work consistently is crucial for cutting launch expenses, scaling up Starlink, and pushing satellite or AI infrastructure ambitions. On May 22, a Starship test managed to send mock satellites and brought the spacecraft down safely, but the Super Heavy booster missed its landing target.
“Full reusability is the key to unlocking dramatically lower launch costs,” said James Bruegger, chief investment officer at Seraphim Space, speaking with Reuters. SmartTech Research CEO Mark Vena added that perfection wasn’t required from the latest flight—just evidence that the upgraded vehicle was “moving in the right direction.” Reuters
Competition’s not on an even track. Blue Origin is looking at a lengthy delay after an explosion involving its New Glenn rocket left the launch pad damaged, company and industry sources told Reuters. This hits both Jeff Bezos’ space venture and Amazon’s push into satellite internet. “But it will take months to rebuild,” Analyst Antoine Grenier at Analysys Mason said, though he thinks they’ll bounce back. Reuters
SpaceX might gain some edge, though it won’t dominate the field just yet. Mark Boggett, who leads Seraphim Space, told Reuters the sector’s heading for a “multi-provider ecosystem”—so alternatives remain essential. Investors eyeing SpaceX’s IPO are looking at a mix: Starlink’s strong growth and profits, increased government interest, and a handful of still-untested projects that all have to line up. Reuters
