Hawthorne, California, June 1, 2026, 07:06 PDT
Michael Burry, famous for shorting the U.S. housing market before the 2008 meltdown, is casting fresh skepticism on SpaceX’s looming IPO. The investor points to the company’s U.S. prospectus, arguing it fails to support the lofty valuations circulating around Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite, and AI venture. “Nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion,” Burry told subscribers, according to Business Insider. Business Insider
Timing is crucial here. SpaceX is on the cusp of kicking off its IPO marketing, with Reuters reporting that pricing may happen as soon as June 11. The shares are expected to debut on Nasdaq the next day, trading under the ticker SPCX. Bankers are eyeing June 4 for the start of the roadshow, pitching the offering to potential investors.
The S-1 filing is carrying outsized importance here—it gives the market a detailed look at the company’s books, who owns what, and critical risks before hitting the public market. Bloomberg described the S-1 as an unusually revealing window into SpaceX’s finances, its roster of advisers, and the extent of Musk’s control, all ahead of what could be a record-breaking IPO. According to the SEC’s filing index, Space Exploration Technologies Corp’s S-1 was accepted May 20.
This wasn’t your typical growth narrative. SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, Reuters reported, but that came alongside a net loss of $4.94 billion. For the first quarter, SpaceX logged $4.69 billion in revenue and ended up with a $1.94 billion operating loss. Starlink, its connectivity arm, turned a profit. The AI division, though, posted a $2.47 billion loss on $818 million revenue.
Bankers keep coming back to a straightforward point: SpaceX just doesn’t have a true public-market match. “Difficult to value companies like this,” said Reena Aggarwal, finance professor at Georgetown University, speaking to Reuters, noting the lack of a peer group. Matt Kennedy at Renaissance Capital calls SpaceX a “generational company”—something investors may latch onto. Reuters
That argument draws strength from the company’s edge. SpaceX has made reusable rockets and its Starlink satellite network central to operations—a move that’s forced private rival Blue Origin to scramble. Satellite internet, once just a launch headline, now brings regular revenue thanks to steady demand from government, consumer, and enterprise clients.
Washington added another boost. On Friday, the U.S. Space Force handed SpaceX a $4.16 billion contract to build a satellite system for tracking airborne threats, following an earlier $2.29 billion award tied to a military space data network. The larger contract aims to get satellites in orbit by 2028.
Some investors are weighing a hefty governance discount. SpaceX is set to go public with a dual-class share structure—Class B shares give 10 votes apiece, while the public Class A shares get just one, according to Reuters, leaving Musk and insiders firmly in control. There are also new rules that restrict how and where shareholders can bring claims.
Pushback against SpaceX is now tangible. On Friday, Danish pension fund Akademikerpension added SpaceX to its exclusion list, pointing to both governance and valuation worries. The fund flagged market signals that suggest a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion—numbers it finds tough to defend. In its statement, Akademikerpension pointed to what it called an “extreme concentration of power,” arguing that this would hinder the board’s ability to provide real oversight. SpaceX hasn’t answered Reuters’ request for comment. Reuters
Some of the biggest U.S. pension chiefs voiced worries along the same lines. On May 13, New York City Comptroller Mark Levine, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, and CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost sent a letter to Musk, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, and CFO Bret Johnsen. They argued that if SpaceX makes its way into major indexes, passive investors could wind up owning shares but have almost no influence over the company’s management—or any real legal leverage. ([comptroller.nyc.gov][7])
Risk runs in both directions here. If the roadshow falls flat, bankers may have to cut the offering’s valuation or scale it back; but a rush from retail buyers and funds tracking indexes could catch doubters off guard. Bloomberg said SpaceX dropped its valuation target to at least $1.8 trillion, though Musk shot back “False” at a post referencing that story. The final numbers for valuation and offering size remain in play, depending on demand, per the report. Investing
Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida who researches IPOs, told Reuters that IPOs sporting lofty price-to-sales multiples typically underperform in the long run, no matter how strong the pitch. “Stuff could go wrong,” Ritter said. For SpaceX investors, that’s the bargain: on one hand, Starlink’s profits, launch volume, and defense work; on the other, AI losses, founder entrenchment, and a valuation that’s already stretched. Reuters
[7]: https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/letter-to-spacex-re-ipo-from-nyc-comptroller-levine-nys-comptroller-dinapoli-and-calpers-ceo-frost/ “
Office of the New York City Comptroller published a letter addressed to SpaceX regarding a potential IPO, signed by NYC Comptroller Mark Levine, NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, and CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost.
Mark Levine”
