NEW YORK, May 23, 2026, 10:04 (EDT)
SpaceX’s looming IPO is zeroing in on a single investor question: Can Starlink ramp up quickly enough to justify a valuation that, according to Reuters, might hit $1.75 trillion? Roth Capital Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni spelled it out on CNBC’s “The Exchange,” calling the central issue around that eye-popping figure simply, “how does Starlink scale.” YouTube
The issue’s front and center this week after SpaceX submitted its S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, putting the once-private company on a path to greater public scrutiny. An initial public offering—IPO—marks a company’s first time selling shares to public investors.
SpaceX is targeting a June 12 listing date, following an investor roadshow set for June 4, according to Reuters. The company’s $1.75 trillion valuation would mark the first-ever U.S. IPO above the $1 trillion mark, immediately slotting SpaceX among the world’s biggest publicly traded firms.
The filing spells out Starlink’s central role in SpaceX’s story. The connectivity unit, led by Starlink, delivered $1.19 billion in operating profit for the first quarter. SpaceX overall logged a $1.94 billion operating loss on $4.69 billion in revenue. The AI arm did worse, dropping $2.47 billion on just $818 million in sales.
Starlink stands out as SpaceX’s most straightforward growth engine, unlike its rocket launches or forays into AI. According to Apptopia data cited by Reuters last month, downloads of the Starlink app and monthly active user numbers more than doubled in the first quarter compared to a year ago. The subscriber count topped 10 million back in February.
Friday’s Starship flight handed investors fresh numbers to chew on. SpaceX managed to send 20 mock Starlink satellites and two special test units into orbit, and the upgraded rocket survived the wild ride back through the atmosphere, coming down for a controlled splash in the Indian Ocean. But the Super Heavy booster ran into trouble and didn’t pull off its scheduled boost-back burn. “Another meaningful step forward,” said Kathleen Curlee, research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Reuters
Cheap, frequent Starship launches are crucial for SpaceX as it ramps up Starlink. Musk’s bigger talk—lunar trips, Mars, off-world data centers—feeds into the company’s valuation story, though investors still struggle to pin down the numbers on those bets.
The IPO could feature a rare twist: SpaceX is reportedly considering a phased lock-up, allowing some insiders to sell shares ahead of the typical six-month freeze—as long as certain company milestones and price targets are achieved. According to Mayer Brown attorney Ali Perry, speaking to Reuters, this setup might dodge the “one big lock-up cliff,” but it wouldn’t entirely eliminate pressure from sellers. Reuters
Control stands out here. The prospectus assigns 10 votes per share to Class B stockholders, while Class A shares—open to the public—only carry one vote each. According to Reuters, Musk would end up holding 85.1% of the combined voting power. “There’s somewhat of a halo effect” around Musk, said Reena Aggarwal, a finance professor at Georgetown, noting that SpaceX is hard to price given it doesn’t have an obvious peer. Reuters
The field is still shaking out. Blue Origin is chasing SpaceX, hoping to close the gap in reusable rockets, while over in satellite internet, Amazon’s low-Earth-orbit unit landed a deal with Delta Air Lines for in-flight Wi-Fi—a move Reuters framed as a direct shot at Starlink. Amazon can’t match Starlink’s satellite count yet, but for investors, it’s at least a heavyweight to measure the satellite-internet business against.
Still, the risks stack up. SpaceX wants investors to price in Starlink’s actual cash flow, but they’ll also be taking on steep AI losses, expensive Starship work, and bets on unbuilt ventures like orbital data centers. Should Starlink’s user numbers stall, launches get delayed, or public investors balk at Musk’s grip on the company, the IPO pitch starts to resemble a telecom infrastructure play—not the high-octane software growth story some might expect.
Kulkarni’s question, for the moment, captures the essence of the deal more clearly than any talk of Mars or flashy rocket shots. SpaceX has already proved it can launch, land, and actually move satellite broadband in volume. Now, it’s public investors who’ll be weighing the value of that kind of scale.
