SAN FRANCISCO, May 29, 2026, 05:02 PDT
- U.S. funds are stashing cash in anticipation of blockbuster IPOs from OpenAI and SpaceX, reflecting a shift: the AI IPO pitch is turning into an actual allocation exercise for some investors.
- Anthropic is now valued at $965 billion, a jump that turns up the heat on OpenAI, which put its own valuation at $852 billion back in March.
- Submitting a confidential IPO filing kicks off the regulatory review process, though investors won’t see a public prospectus or audited financials right away.
OpenAI’s anticipated move toward a U.S. IPO is already stirring up action on Wall Street. According to analysts speaking with Reuters, big mutual funds and passive index funds are holding back cash and even considering trimming some large-cap names, bracing for possible public debuts from both OpenAI and SpaceX.
The development is significant: OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, stands in line to potentially pull off one of the biggest public debuts on record. Investors sizing up artificial intelligence firms have some fresh data to chew on—Anthropic, a competitor, disclosed Thursday that it raised $65 billion, pushing its post-money valuation to $965 billion. That figure now tops OpenAI’s most recent known private valuation.
An initial public offering (IPO) marks the first time a company’s shares hit the public market. Before that happens, many companies opt for a confidential filing—a draft registration statement they quietly submit to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC reviews it behind closed doors. Their procedures let companies keep these filings under wraps, on the condition that everything goes public at least 15 days ahead of a roadshow, or before the registration becomes effective if there’s no roadshow at all.
OpenAI has plans to confidentially submit paperwork for a U.S. IPO in the next few weeks and could hit the public markets as soon as September, according to Reuters, which cited sources familiar with the process. The company is teaming up with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to put together a draft prospectus, Reuters said. Forbes, referencing the Wall Street Journal, also noted that a filing may be imminent.
It comes after a courtroom victory: A jury in Oakland, California, sided against Elon Musk in his suit targeting OpenAI’s move away from its nonprofit roots, saying he waited too long to file. Dan Ives at Wedbush called the outcome “a significant overhang” lifted for a potential OpenAI IPO, speaking with Reuters. Reuters
Kat Liu, vice president at IPOX, said the case being resolved “removed a major obstacle” to an IPO, likely giving OpenAI reason to speed things up. She also pointed out that if OpenAI and SpaceX both file at the same time, portfolio managers will have to weigh the two directly against each other. Reuters
OpenAI’s scale is rare among private firms. Back in March, it wrapped up a $122 billion funding round, putting its post-money valuation at $852 billion, with monthly revenue hitting $2 billion. The company also shared that ChatGPT now pulls in over 900 million weekly active users and tops 50 million consumer subscribers.
The setup is still a bit unconventional from a public-market perspective. According to OpenAI, the OpenAI Foundation retains control of OpenAI Group—the public benefit corporation—while holding a 26% equity stake valued at roughly $130 billion after the recap. Microsoft’s share stands at about 27%. The remaining equity? Current and former staff, along with investors, hold it, per OpenAI.
The competitive landscape has been changing fast. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, recently said its run-rate revenue topped $47 billion earlier this month. Its latest fundraising round drew in Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital as lead investors. Reuters has reported that both Anthropic and OpenAI are eyeing the public markets, potentially this year, to secure funding for the heavy computing demands of training and running their models.
For funds, it’s not just about what to pick up—it’s also about what gets dropped. John Flood, managing director in global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs, notes that U.S. equity mutual funds have bumped up their cash cushions ahead of each of the four biggest IPOs in recent history. On top of that, changes to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rules could bring newly public megacaps into the major indexes faster, pulling passive funds along with them.
The situation remains fluid. OpenAI hasn’t set an IPO date yet. A spokesperson told Axios the company routinely looks at strategic moves as standard practice, sticking to its execution goals. Once a public filing lands, though, bigger questions loom: OpenAI’s cash burn, the strength of its compute obligations, post-listing governance structure, and whether public investors will buy into the rich AI valuations seen privately.
The test is edging nearer. OpenAI brings users, revenue growth, and brand heft. Public markets, though, will be zeroing in on costs.
