San Francisco, May 21, 2026, 01:16 (PDT)
OpenAI is set to file confidentially for a U.S. IPO within days or weeks, seeking a potential fall debut and eyeing a valuation that could approach $1 trillion. The timing remains fluid. If it proceeds, Sam Altman’s company would step into the IPO spotlight just as Elon Musk’s SpaceX has made its own filing public.
OpenAI’s planned filing would represent its most decisive move so far away from its research roots and toward a business model that demands significant capital. The timing follows a California jury’s dismissal of Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing away a legal obstacle that had shadowed the company’s IPO ambitions.
Timing is the crucial factor here. The private AI sector has expanded to the point where investors have an unusual decision: back OpenAI, known for its models and software, or SpaceX, which now bundles rockets, satellite internet, and Musk’s xAI under its public market umbrella.
OpenAI has tapped Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to help prepare a draft prospectus, according to Reuters, which cited people familiar with the matter. Filing confidentially allows the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to look over a draft before it’s made public—a practice the SEC has broadened in recent years to cover more draft registration statements.
In a statement, OpenAI said it “regularly evaluate[s] a range of strategic options” but emphasized that its “focus remains on execution.” Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, reached by Bloomberg, chose not to comment, The Business Times reported. The Business Times
The company’s most recent valuation hit $852 billion, with talks underway for an offering of at least $60 billion, according to Reuters. Earlier this year, it pulled in $122 billion—highlighting just how high the cost of chips, data centers, and talent runs for AI developers.
IPOX Vice President Kat Liu told Reuters the verdict in Musk’s case “removed a major obstacle,” saying it probably lets OpenAI accelerate. Liu added that with filings coming in almost together, portfolio managers may have to weigh OpenAI and SpaceX “side by side.” Reuters
The Musk case isn’t over just yet. Musk plans to appeal, and the trial featured testimony that brought new questions about Altman’s leadership. Dan Ives at Wedbush described the verdict as a “huge win” for OpenAI, but he pointed out the “scrapes and bruises” to Altman’s public image. Reuters
SpaceX’s latest filing spells out the kind of competition OpenAI might soon face for investor dollars. The rocket-and-satellite giant is targeting a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation and could hit the public markets as soon as June 12. For the first quarter, SpaceX reported an operating loss of $1.94 billion on $4.69 billion in revenue. Its AI unit alone was responsible for $2.47 billion of the red ink.
Reuters, referencing the filing, reported that Musk would still hold 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting rights. “There is a ‘halo effect’ around Musk,” Georgetown finance professor Reena Aggarwal said, adding that valuing firms like SpaceX is tricky since “no peer group for comparison” exists. Reuters
OpenAI faces no shortage of competition: Google and Anthropic are pushing hard on both the model and enterprise fronts. Reuters noted OpenAI has updated its product road map over the past few months. According to the company, ChatGPT earlier this year counted over 900 million weekly active users and topped 50 million consumer subscribers.
Public investors might not settle for just growth. HSBC, according to Reuters Breakingviews, sees OpenAI’s revenue hitting $34 billion this year, jumping to $64 billion next year. But there’s another side—reports suggest OpenAI could burn through $25 billion in 2024. BNP Paribas analysts don’t expect the company to turn free-cash-flow positive before 2031.
The market backdrop matters, too. Should SpaceX hit its target, it would top Saudi Aramco’s record IPO valuation from 2019. OpenAI, by contrast, is coming in with major spending needs and lingering uncertainty about costs in AI, rivals, and internal oversight. When stocks are hot, that’s shrugged off. Turn down the temperature, and those same details start to worry investors.
